Recently, I heard four top cryptocurrency traders give their bitcoin price outlook during the Quant Conference, when bitcoin price was about $13,000. It’s now 17,000 as of this writing:
- Max Boonen, B2C2: $17,000 within 12 months.
- Dan Matuszewski: within a year, bitcoin will hit an all-time high (of $20,000), but not a lot more within 5 years, maybe $25,000 to $30,000? Dan has long term concerns.
- Kevin Zhou, Galois Capital: long term he sees bitcoin at $100,000 to $ 1 million in 5- 10 years.
- Kyle Davies, 3 Arrows: He sees an all-time high for bitcoin within one year. He doesn’t hear random friends calling about buying bitcoin; when they start calling him, he would turn very bullish.
I asked Larry Summers, former President of Harvard and former US Treasury Secretary, when bitcoin was at $10,000 in September about his price outlook. He thoughtfully replied that there are more numbers above $10,000 than there are numbers below $10,000. He said that there is room for bitcoin in one’s investment portfolio.
Personally, I’m bullish. I subscribe to the argument that there is a limited supply of bitcoin like gold, and with all the government printing presses going full bore, inflation will creep back after the pandemic, which will drive up the price of bitcoin. I think bitcoin will hit an all-time high of $20,000 within a year, but that chances of it doubling are equal to the chances of the price being cut in half. I don’t take 50- 50 bets.
So, what bets do you take? And what would you tell me if I have $17,000 to invest?